STAT 330 September 11, 2012

Today we looked at some simple examples of Bayesian inference, in medical situations and legal situations.

Interestingly, the New York Times today has an article on another medical test that they are now recommending not be used because it does not reduce mortality and when positives are found, they are mostly false positives and have significant adverse consequences.

Here is Chart Set 4, “Interpretation

4 Responses to “STAT 330 September 11, 2012”

  1. Ahmed Says:

    Hello class,

    I came across a great R IDE (Integrated Development Environment) a few months ago. I think you might like it so here is the link:


  2. Ahmed Says:

    Here is an example that is similar to the tea-kettle scenario that we discussed in class:

    [Suppose I believe that exactly 47 angles can dance on my head, which can’t be seen or felt in anyway. Is there any evidence you could provide that would change my belief?]

    Here are some of the thoughts/questions that I would try to ask to gain more information, to alter the belief:

    1- Size of an angel on average
    2- Size of the two feet of an angel on average
    3- Size of my head in comparison of the size feet of an angel * 47
    4- What kind of balance mechanism do angels have so they all can dance all together without falling off of my head.

    The answers to these questions would certainly made me believe that this is possible or not

    This is an exercise that I found in a book Bayesian Data Analysis.

    Please share your thoughts. I have more questions to ask 🙂


  3. Ahmed Says:

    I miserably failed to address the question. Here is what I found out about the answer to this question:

    No. By assumption, the belief has no observable consequences, and therefore no observable data can affect the belief.


  4. bayesrules Says:

    Here’s an interesting blog post that analyzes the problems in medical screening tests:

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: